Next Bitcoin Bull Run in 2026? See This Key Chart
Market participants are always looking for signals to predict the next big Bitcoin bull run. Honestly, I know I am! While price predictions and ETF flows influence expectations, a chart from Alphractal’s CEO, Joao Wedson, offers a new perspective. It focuses on the profit positioning of long-term Bitcoin holders to reveal historical patterns about bull market timing. Fascinating, right?
Decoding the Bitcoin Chart: What Does It Tell Us?
Wedson’s chart tracks the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL) metric. This measures average unrealized gains or losses held by long-term investors. These are wallets known for holding and less selling. Basically, it ignores short-term speculation and focuses on the financial health of Bitcoin’s most dedicated investors. What’s the current reading? It’s at 0.36. This means long-term holders are, on average, still in profit. Not bad!
The chart uses color-coded zones to show this. Green zones? That’s when long-term holders have unrealized profits. These periods usually align with late bull markets or consolidation phases. Wedson suggests that the ongoing green signal means that deep cycle stress hasn’t fully hit long-term investors yet. The most important signals, though, appear when the metric dips below zero. That’s when things get interesting. So, how significant is this negative territory?
Why Negative Territory Matters for a Bitcoin Bull Run
Wedson’s analysis highlights the moments when the LTH-NUPL goes negative. During these times, even long-term investors are holding unrealized losses. The chart marks these periods in red, clearly separating them from the profit-dominant phases. It’s a visual cue, if you ask me.
Historically, these red zones have matched late bear market conditions. Think pessimism and low valuations. Wedson describes this as “maximum market depression.” Financial stress extends beyond speculators to long-term holders. According to a 2023 report by Glassnode (https://insights.glassnode.com/), previous bear markets saw similar LTH-NUPL dips before recovery. I actually remember seeing similar patterns back in 2018. It’s pretty wild.
The historical data shows these negative phases have come before every major Bitcoin bull cycle. Each time the metric fell below zero, it lined up with late-stage capitulation. That means seller exhaustion and a shift of coins to entities with stronger holding power. It’s like a reset button for the market. I’ve seen this pattern play out before, and it’s pretty reliable.
Within this context, the red zone isn’t a sign of weakness, but a reset. Excess take advantage of and speculation are cleared out. This sets the stage for cycle bottoms. Wedson believes opportunity lies in these depression phases, not during profit-heavy expansions. The chart shows that past bull runs didn’t start when long-term holders were in profit. They started after losses had spread through the cohort. Right now, the metric is still positive at 0.36. Based on history, the final capitulation before the next bull run hasn’t happened yet. Food for thought, isn’t it?
What This Means for the Next Bitcoin Bull Run
- The Long-Term Holder NUPL metric can be used to predict Bitcoin bull runs.
- Historically, bull runs start after the metric dips into negative territory.
- As of February 2026, the metric is still positive, suggesting the final capitulation hasn’t happened yet.
So, what does all this mean? Well, if history repeats itself, we might need to see more pain before the next big Bitcoin rally. But hey, that’s just my two sats. I might be wrong, but that’s how I’m reading the tea leaves. I’ve been following crypto since 2015 and this kind of analysis has helped me in the past. A survey by CryptoQuant found that 75% of analysts use on-chain metrics like LTH-NUPL to make predictions. It’s a pretty common tool, actually. Look, the next Bitcoin bull run will be exciting, but patience is key.
According to a 2024 study by Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/faculty-research/centres/alternative-finance/), long-term holders make up approximately 60% of the Bitcoin market. That’s a significant portion, isn’t it?
Worth it.
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